构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角

权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧，维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系，对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角，中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面，中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制，逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识，推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺，从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面，中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果，构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略，确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力，是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。     

中美复合战略稳定关系:建构依据、基本框架与发展趋势

中美战略稳定关系已经超越经典战略稳定性，向着复合战略稳定关系的方向演化。建构中美复合战略稳定关系是稳定两国关系的客观需要。彼此战略竞争加剧给中美之间非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性带来负面影响。在美国提高核力量于国家安全战略中的地位、将核武器重新作为霸权工具的背景下，中美战略稳定性面临挑战。特朗普政府对中国挑起贸易争端，经贸关系在中美关系中的“稳定器”和“压舱石”作用减弱，建构中美复合战略稳定关系的必要性凸显。中美之间经济深度相互依存，在维护国际体系稳定方面具有共同利益，这为建构中美复合战略稳定关系奠定了坚实的基础。中美复合战略稳定关系框架包括建立在非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性、双方经济的深度相互依存、战略互信、双方对话交流与合作机制等四根支柱，其中以非均势核威慑基础上的战略稳定性为核心支柱。虽然中美战略互信存在短板，但随着中国战略核力量的进步、中美经济相互依存的继续维持和双方对话交流与合作机制的成熟和完善，中美复合战略稳定关系将不断巩固。     

The Role of Brand Orientation in Developing a Learning Culture and Achieving Performance Goals in the Third Sector Organizations

ABSTRACT

This study is first in nature to find the empirical evidence of relationship between brand orientation (BRO), learning orientation (LO), and its impact on Performance (PERF) of third sector organizations (TSOs) in Pakistan. A structured questionnaire was filled through non-probability snowball sampling method from more than 300 senior managers working in different cities of Pakistan. The structural equation model was used for the mediation by running smart partial least squares software. The results prove that organizations with strong BRO philosophy not only help to develop strong LO culture but also help in achieving organizational performance goals. The study also discussed practical implications, limitations, and areas of future directions.     

A view from the policy community: a new strategic narrative for Europe?

ABSTRACT

Reflecting on the results presented in articles in this special issue, European leaders should take greater account of external perceptions in crafting the European Union's strategic narrative and guiding its actions. Failure to do so has impaired external policies like the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, the European Neighbourhood Policy and Eastern Partnership. Leaders emerging from the Arab uprisings perceived the EU as complicit with their countries’ former anciens régimes and Russian leaders see EU support for democracy and the market economy in former Soviet states as duplicitous and instrusive. Awareness of such perceptions should be filtered into EU decision-making, without validating views that European officials and diplomats consider misleading.     

Civilian Forensic Technician and Sworn Police Officer Job-Related Stress

Forensic Technicians provide crime scene investigation services and are exposed to stressful violent crimes, motor vehicle accidents, biological or chemical hazards, and other appalling imagery. Forensic Technicians would likely experience physical and psychological stress after exposure to trauma, and security vulnerabilities similar to Sworn Police Officers. The perceived availability of mental health resources, job-related physical, psychological stress, and traumatic experiences of both Forensic Technicians and Sworn Police Officers from California law enforcement agencies were investigated using a self-reported survey. Responses were evaluated for any significant differences in the perceived stress, job-related physical stress, and resulting psychological impact affecting the participants. The survey contained a mix of True/False, Circle/Check the Appropriate Box, or Likert Scale (1–5) responses. The results were evaluated statistically and discussed. Results indicated Sworn Police Officers and Forensic Technicians have different on-duty stress levels, but similar off-duty stress levels. Nearly two-thirds of 54 job-related stressors were not significantly different between the two occupations. However, Forensic Technicians reported more adverse effects in 17 physical and psychological job-related activities compared with Sworn Police Officers. Forensic Technicians reported lower awareness levels and availability of agency mental health support services than were reported by Sworn Police Officers. This study reports for the first time an unexpected outcome that perceived and job-related psychological stress is greater for Forensic Technicians than Sworn Police Officers. Possible reasons for this disparity will be discussed as well as stress management tools that should be implemented to reduce health risk factors for both career professionals as well as increase public safety.     

Strategic rebels: a spatial econometric approach to rebel fighting durations in civil wars

ABSTRACT

Recent research on multi-actor civil wars highlights that rebel organizations condition their conflict behavior on that of other rebel organizations, with competition and free-riding constituting the core theoretical mechanisms. We provide a new actor-centric approach to explicitly model strategic interdependence in multi-actor civil wars. We argue that rebel organizations have incentives to remain mobilized until the end of a conflict to maintain their power to negotiate, power to spoil, power to enforce, and power to protect. This induces strategic complements that dominate duration dynamics in multi-actor conflicts. Based on a network game-theoretic model, we derive a spatial econometric framework that allows for a direct test of strategic interdependence. We find that the estimated duration interdependence is positive but partially offset in secessionist conflicts where the public goods nature of the incompatibility also induces strategic substitution effects.     

对外依存与中国外交的战略自主

改革开放四十年,中国经济得到长足发展,与此同时也带来了对外依存度偏高的风险,而经济上的对外依存与战略自主之间存在密切的相互影响关系。回顾一些大国的对外战略可以看出,相互依存直接影响对外战略,对外依存度过高会导致战略自主性的下降,从而极大缩减战略选项,甚至在一些关键节点不得不诉诸战略冒险。中国的对外依存与战略自主的关系也经历了复杂的演变过程。新中国成立后,中国一度采取"一边倒"的对外政策,在一定程度上影响了战略自主。改革开放之后,中国经济对外部市场、技术和能源的依存度不断上升,也在一定程度上限制了中国对外战略的全面自主发展。因此,中国的大国战略必须在外向与内顾、国际与国内之间保持适当的平衡,更为合理地协调对外依存与战略自主之间的关系,将全面深度改革开放与全方位外交布局紧密联系在一起。唯其如此,中国未来的大国外交才能行稳致远。     

腐败心理的内涵、构成及抑制策略

腐败心理是支配腐败行为人实施腐败行为的复杂心理现象的总称。腐败心理不仅是腐败行为发生的内在动因,其构成要素的组合状况和特点还决定了腐败行为的性质、类型和发生频次。因此,抑制腐败心理的生成,需要培育积极的心理动力结构要素、合理的心理认知结构要素和有效的心理自控结构要素,从源头上构筑起预防腐败行为发生的内在防线。     

论“两山”理念蕴含的科学思维方法

"两山"理念蕴含的科学思维方法,为新时代进一步推进生态文明建设提供了方法论指导,要求我们从战略思维上把生态文明建设上升到关乎中华民族伟大复兴的高度;从系统思维上把"人-自然-社会"作为内在的有机体去把握,把生态治理看作是一个复杂的系统工程;从辩证思维上把握"绿水青山"与"金山银山"的相互关系,在实践中把经济发展与环境保护构成统一的整体,走高质量发展之路。     

Characteristics of children with problem sexual behaviour and adolescent perpetrators of sexual abuse: a systematic review

ABSTRACT

People who commit sexual offences are a heterogeneous group, with research suggesting that children and young people commit a large proportion of all sex offences, especially those committed against other children. This systematic review provides a synthesis of literature concerning the characteristics of children and adolescents who exhibit harmful sexual behaviour. There is a particular focus in this review on studies that examine the characteristics of children and young people exhibiting these behaviours within institutional and organisational settings or which take a situational and/or developmental approach to understanding sexually abusive behaviour. Using a developmental and life-course criminology lens, this review explores implications from the literature for the prevention and response to child sexual abuse, with a particular focus on institutional contexts where the perpetrators are children and adolescents.